Frame the conditions
Develop a structured set of plausible operating conditions around the decision being considered. Examine how the organisation’s choices perform in each setting. The purpose is to understand the conditions supporting a strategy, the dependencies it creates and the adjustments that may be required.
Choose relevant uncertainties
Select uncertainties that could materially affect the proposed direction. They may concern the availability of an enabling capability, the timing of an institutional need or the viability of a partnership. Give each scenario a clear connection to the decision and enough detail to support a useful examination of its implications.
Examine dependencies and trade-offs
Work through the implications for priorities, dependencies and capacity to act. Identify the elements of the strategy that remain useful, those that become harder to deliver and the changes each setting would require. Discuss the trade-offs directly so that leaders can assess the conditions under which each choice is credible.
Identify actions and signals
Identify actions supported across several scenarios and those that depend on particular conditions. Select observable signals linked to the assumptions carrying the greatest weight. Agree which signals would prompt a review, who will assess them and how that assessment will inform the next decision.
Return to the strategy
Translate the findings into priorities, contingencies and defined review points. Assign responsibility for actions and specify any further analysis needed. The resulting strategy should explain how the organisation intends to act and how it will adapt as evidence about the operating environment changes.
THE STRATEGIC CONSIDERATION
Test assumptions, identify dependencies and agree what would trigger a change in direction.